I’ve got to be honest with you. I was not expecting Conor Lamb to win the special election for PA-18. It wasn’t even supposed to be close. PA-18 is a deeply conservative district (Rick Santorum once held it), home to many coal mines, predominantly white and aging, and brutally gerrymandered. National GOP and conservative groups poured an estimated $10m into fighting Lamb. He won anyway.
Let’s see what the statistics nerds at FiveThirtyEight have to say about this result (emphasis mine):
If Democrats can win districts like Pennsylvania 18, they won’t need to stretch and scrape together a House majority. According to FiveThirtyEight’s partisan lean measure, 118 Republican-held districts nationwide are less red than the Pennsylvania 18th is. Of course, the entire country is unlikely to shift 22 points to the left in November the way the 18th did — and the country may not even shift the full 17 points implied by the aggregate of special-election results — but Republicans should still be very worried.
As I write this, Lamb’s victory comes down to a 627-vote lead. Everything came down to voter turnout. Every vote counts. There is no more effective strategy to resist Trump’s agenda today than getting out the vote.
ONE THING YOU CAN DO RIGHT NOW
Support our partners at SwingLeft by:
- Donating to District Funds. Everyone worries that brutal primaries in districts like CA-10 will weaken the eventual nominee. SwingLeft’s brilliant innovation is a war chest waiting for whichever candidate wins the primaries, to set them up for a challenging general election campaign.
- Signing up for the Grassroots Organizing Team in Tracy this Saturday.
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Fireside chat with Congresswoman Pelosi staff
Thursday, March 15, 6pm – 7pm
Noe Valley Library, 451 Jersey St.
Tracy Grassroots Organizing (GO) Team
Saturday, March 17, 11am – 3pm
902 N. Central Ave. Suite 201, Tracy CA
Stand Up SF February Meeting
Sunday, March 18, 2pm – 4pm
Noe Valley Library
Brown bag lunch with Senator Feinstein staff
Friday, April 20, 12noon – 1pm
NEW VENUE: 301 Mission Street (lobby area)